Futures daily
In recent trading days, the price of industrial silicon futures continues to rise, and the market volatility increases. May 22, industrial silicon futures continued to rise, SI2407 contract once hit a two-month high of 12450 yuan / ton. Analysts said that the recent improvement in macro expectations and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market has led to a strong operation of industrial silicon futures, but there is limited room for market prices to rebound under the pattern of increasing demand and decreasing supply, and it is more likely to maintain a weak trend of shocks. Moreover, the industrial silicon futures price upward, the spot price performance is weak, the basis goes down rapidly, investors should pay attention to hedging to increase the suppression of the market price.
Prices will continue to fluctuate around costs
Ji Yuanfei
Since May, with the commissioning of new production capacity in the industrial silicon industry chain and the resumption of some production capacity in the high water season, the growth rate of production has gradually exceeded the growth rate of demand, and inventories have gradually accumulated, and the market had expected prices to fall or bottom shocks. Recently, with the increase in the number of polysilicon overhaul and production reduction enterprises, the spot price of industrial silicon has fallen, but the futures price performance is relatively strong, and the basis weakens rapidly. The author believes that this is related to the fact that macro policies are good for commodities, futures buying increases but fundamentals are weak, and investors should pay attention to the fact that the opening of the arbitrage window may lead to the suppression of arbitrage prices.
The growth rate of supply is faster than that of demand.
From a supply point of view, industrial silicon production is expected to continue to increase in May. On the one hand, Xinjiang has an annual production capacity of 100000 tons of industrial silicon planned to be put into production in May, on the other hand, the southwest region will enter a flood season and the power supply is abundant. Silicon enterprises in Sichuan began to resume production slowly, and the operating rate rebounded significantly. Silicon enterprises in Xinjiang are close to full production. Relevant data show that as of May 17, the total weekly output of the three major producing areas of Xinjiang, Yunnan and Sichuan has reached 4. 5%.Xtimesvideopoker. 910000 tons, a record high.
From the point of view of demand, polysilicon is the core growth point of industrial silicon demand (accounting for about 45%). With the release of production capacity, the price drops rapidly. at present, the average price of N-type material is 42.Xtimesvideopoker.5 yuan / kg, other product prices have fallen below 40 yuan / kg. In May, a number of polysilicon enterprises overhauled and reduced production. Although the release of Tongwei Baoshan production capacity can supplement the market, with the weakening of polysilicon prices, the superposition coincides with the summer maintenance period, after the polysilicon prices fall below the cost line, enterprises tend to overhaul ahead of time, and it is expected that maintenance enterprises will further increase in the later stage. As a result, the growth rate of industrial silicon demand may slow in May, and may even decrease slightly.
In short, from the perspective of supply and demand, in May or even in the second and third quarters of this year, the growth rate of industrial silicon supply is greater than the growth rate of demand is a high probability event, inventory may continue to accumulate, prices are expected to be under pressure, continue to fluctuate around costs.
The macro atmosphere warms up.
Recently, the macro atmosphere has changed greatly, and commodities, especially the non-ferrous sector, have a bright performance, which has a certain driving effect on the future price of industrial silicon. On the one hand, the recent warming of the macro atmosphere at home and abroad, the introduction of domestic stable real estate policies, the strengthening of the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the superimposed geopolitical crisis led to a stronger sense of risk aversion, and the general strength of metal prices led to a rebound in the price of industrial silicon.XtimesvideopokerOn the other hand, some investors believe that the price of industrial silicon futures has fallen near the cost line and that there is less room to continue to decline.
In addition to polysilicon, organosilicon and aluminum alloy are also important downstream of industrial silicon (24% and 15% respectively). The implementation of stable real estate policy is good for the demand of silicone and aluminum alloy. In addition, the recovery of overseas markets is also conducive to the growth of exports. But at present, the organosilicon industry is still near the break-even line, enterprises mainly control production by maintenance, and the demand for aluminum alloy is relatively stable, which has little impact on the price of industrial silicon.
From the cost point of view, the lowest cost of Si4210 in April is in Xinjiang. Relevant data show that in April, the average cost of Si4210 in Xinjiang is about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is 16100 yuan / ton, and that of Si4210 in Sichuan is about 15900 yuan / ton. With the arrival of the flood season, the production cost of Si4210 in southwest China is expected to fall to about 13000 yuan / ton, equivalent to a disk price of about 11500 yuan / ton. Some investors believe that the current low price of industrial silicon futures is 11600 yuan / ton, which is close to the production cost, and the downward space is small, and the willingness to lay out more orders has been strengthened.
Pay attention to the impact of the opening of arbitrage window on futures prices
Although macro-positive expectations support the strength of industrial silicon futures prices, spot prices have continued to fall recently, the basis has weakened rapidly, and the arbitrage window has been opened. Relevant data show that on May 21, the average market price of oxygenated Si5530 industrial silicon in East China was 13100 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the previous month, while the average market price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 13650 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the previous month. The average market price of Si4210 industrial silicon in Kunming is 13850 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the previous month. Industrial silicon futures 2407 contract closed at 12270 yuan / ton, rising 215 yuan / ton. The basis spread is 315 yuan / ton weaker than the previous day, East China Si4210 and industrial silicon futures 2407 contract spread fell to about-620 yuan / ton, buy spot and sell futures risk-free arbitrage window opens, investors should pay attention to the increase in hedging may put pressure on the price.
Generally speaking, the spot market price of industrial silicon has fallen due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand, but under the influence of the macro expected improvement, the futures price is strong, which leads to a substantial weakening of the basis. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the actual changes on the demand side can support the long-month contract price to continue to strengthen, otherwise the increase of hedging will bring some downward pressure on the market. (author unit: Guangfa Futures)
The above contents are for reference only, and enter the market at your own risk.
Analysts: there is greater resistance to rising when supply increases and demand decreases.
Reporter Liu Weikui
In recent trading days, the price of industrial silicon futures has continued to rise, and the market volatility has been magnified rapidly. On May 22nd, industrial silicon futures continued to rise, with the SI2407 contract hitting a two-month high of 12450 yuan / ton. It closed the day up 0.98% to 12340 yuan / ton.
Fundamentals are still weak.
Wang Chuhao, an analyst at Changan Futures, believes that the current industrial silicon disk price is rising rapidly, on the one hand, because the stable real estate policy is frequent, and the warming macro atmosphere has formed a certain support to the market, and the superimposed non-ferrous plate is strong. It has a certain driving effect on the price of industrial silicon futures.XtimesvideopokerOn the other hand, money is looking for opportunities to enter the market, coupled with some news from the market has stimulated market sentiment to some extent.
Guoxin futures analyst Li Xiangying believes that the rise in industrial silicon futures prices is mainly due to the rotation effect of long commodities. "this round of rise began with precious metals, and then gradually extended to non-ferrous varieties. Recently, under the support of a stable real estate policy, the strength of funds for domestic commodities has been gradually strengthened, and the prices of real estate-related varieties have risen continuously." Li Xiangying said that the industrial silicon disk price has fluctuated around the cost line for a long time, the valuation is neutral on the low side, and the downstream varieties of organosilicon and aluminum alloy have a high correlation with the construction industry. After the macro expectations have improved, the industrial silicon has the demand to repair the valuation.
It is worth noting that the market rose this time, but the spot market has not yet followed, and short-term spreads are falling rapidly. Relevant data show that on May 22nd, the average price of oxygenation in Zhejiang Province was 13100 yuan / ton, the same as that of the 21st, while the average price of oxygenation of 42cm was 13600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton.
Li Xiangying said that compared with other industrial products, the industrial silicon industry is more involved in the industrial period, although the futures end performance is strong, but the current industrial silicon spot transaction is general, the price is very difficult to rise.
Li Xiangying believes that from a fundamental point of view, the southwest region is approaching the flood season, the number of furnaces is gradually increasing, the northwest region operating rate is on the high side, and the overall output of industrial silicon will gradually rise. The price of downstream polysilicon has fallen to the head of the enterprise cost line, maintenance production capacity continues to increase, the demand for industrial silicon is reduced. Although the price of silicone has rebounded in the short term, the improvement in demand for raw materials is limited. "the overall demand for industrial silicon is poor, superimposed by high inventories, and spot prices remain low." Li Xiangying said.
Wang Chuhao also believes that the current industrial silicon uplink space is limited. On the demand side, the new production of polysilicon is in parallel with maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon remains stable in the short term, but the number of maintenance enterprises may further increase in the later stage. At present, 7 enterprises have normal maintenance, 3 enterprises have reduced negative operation, and many enterprises have maintenance plans. After a round of production reduction, the production schedule of silicon wafer enterprises is temporarily stable, and the inventory is still at a high level; the organic silicon partial maintenance equipment is restarted, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises continues to decline due to insufficient orders. "the price of polysilicon continues to fall, suppressing the price of industrial silicon. Recently, some silicon factories in the north have adopted sell hedging operations to transfer factory inventory to the futures market." Wang Chuhao said.
At present, industrial silicon inventory is still in a state of accumulation. Relevant data show that as of the week of May 17, the inventory of industrial silicon society was 379000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons over the previous value. Among them, Guangshi warehouse receipt inventory 268000 tons, industrial silicon factory inventory 90000 tons. As of May 22nd, Guangqi Institute had 53846 industrial silicon warehouse orders, equivalent to 269200 tons of industrial silicon.
Li Xiangying reminded that current businessmen in the industrial period should do a good job in the management of funds. "in the current context, non-standard hedging is difficult to deliver with registered warehouse receipts, and it is necessary to bear the loss of a lower basis."
It is not suitable to chase up excessively in the future.
As for the future trend of industrial silicon, Li Xiangying believes that we should pay attention to the macro mood and the overall atmosphere of industrial products, and the current trend in the short term may continue. Cai Dingzhou, a futures analyst in Guangzhou, believes that the current fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. On the one hand, the supply side is expected to resume production; on the other hand, the downstream demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline. Supply easing pattern may further intensify, superimposed inventory continues to increase, futures prices are expected to have limited room to rebound, and it is more likely to maintain a weak shock trend.
Wang Chuhao believes that May 16 industrial silicon futures prices have fallen to a relatively low, there are signs of rebound, superimposed downstream silicone signing a small rebound and the impact of rising commodities as a whole, short-term prices may show an upward trend. However, from the spot point of view, when the flood season entered in May, the reduction of electricity price reduced the cost. Sichuan resumed production more, and other areas also had plans to resume production one after another, while the downstream demand was sluggish, and the rise was relatively weak in the later period. "at present, the industrial silicon industry is in a situation of high start-up, high inventory and low demand, and the degree of oversupply is still deepening, which also leads to a weak trend of supply and demand of industrial silicon in the later period." Wang Chuhao said that in the later period, the driving force for the removal of high industrial silicon inventories is still insufficient, and it has become an established fact that industry inventories continue to grow significantly. Although disk prices build a "double bottom" at the technical level, the short-term upward resistance is getting stronger after coming out of the bottom. in the long run, it is not appropriate to chase up excessively.
Medium-and long-term polysilicon production capacity is expected to continue to expand
It is worth mentioning that, as the main downstream of industrial silicon, the polysilicon industry may further boost the demand for industrial silicon. Under the national "double carbon" strategic goal, the development trend of photovoltaic industry is good. A number of interviewees said that the current upstream and downstream integration strategy of the photovoltaic industry has gradually become a new trend in the development of the industry, which is expected to drive the further expansion of the domestic polysilicon industry.
Wang Chuhao believes that the current photovoltaic industry seems to have a rapid upward trend out of the trough, the rise of the photovoltaic industry will, to a certain extent, form a positive feedback on the price of industrial silicon disk. Recently, it has been reported that the "NEOM plan" promoted by the Saudi Crown Prince is about to be launched and is on a global roadshow. It is reported that Saudi Arabia plans to invest 500 billion US dollars in the development of green energy, in order to get rid of oil dependence and transform scientific and technological innovation, the first batch of several world-class photovoltaic projects will be built, and Chinese manufacturers are expected to get the largest share.
Futures Daily reporter noted that in recent years, the overall global polysilicon production capacity showed a steady growth trend. According to relevant data, the global polysilicon production capacity reached 2.256 million tons in 2023, an increase of 71.6 per cent over the same period last year. Among them, China's production capacity reached 2.099 million tons, accounting for 93.1% of the world's total production capacity, and overseas production capacity is mainly distributed in Germany, the United States, Malaysia, Japan and other places. Cai Dingzhou believes that this is mainly because the rapid growth of downstream photovoltaic installation drives demand, which makes more enterprises expand production one after another. In recent years, the domestic photovoltaic industry has shown a trend of rapid development with the support of national policies, which has led to a significant increase in polysilicon production capacity.
Relevant data shows that from 2014 to 2023, the annual production capacity of polysilicon increased from 165,000 tons to 2.099 million tons, with a compound average annual growth rate of 32.7%. Cai Dingzhou said that since 2020, polysilicon prices have been rising, causing more companies to deploy integrated production capacity projects. This part of production capacity will be put into operation and released one after another in the second half of 2022, resulting in the year-on-year growth rate of production capacity in 2022 and 2023 respectively. 124.1%, 80.5%, much higher than the compound annual growth rate. "Judging from the changes in global production capacity, the increase in production capacity in recent years has mainly come from China, and overseas countries have fewer plans to expand production." Cai Dingzhou analyzed that there are two main reasons for the rapid rise of China's polysilicon industry on a global scale: First, the polysilicon purification process requires a large amount of electricity, and China's energy costs have greater advantages than other overseas countries. Coupled with the growth of downstream photovoltaic installed capacity, the stimulation of demand has enabled Chinese photovoltaic companies to deploy more integrated production capacity and form a scale advantage; Second, GCL Technology has relatively advanced granular silicon technology after acquiring SunEdison. After further research and development, the stability and safety of this production process have been effectively guaranteed, greatly reducing the production cost of polysilicon, and also gaining recognition from the downstream market., granular silicon production capacity has expanded significantly in the past two years.
Cai Dingzhou said that at present, there are still many new capacity projects that have not yet been launched in the photovoltaic industry. In the future, the increase in polysilicon production capacity will still mainly come from China, and my country's status as a major supplier will be further consolidated. According to the forecast of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, the annual production capacity of polysilicon will reach 4 million tons by the end of 2025.