China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0% in April from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday.Ridgewoodbingo.3%, up 0% from the previous month.Ridgewoodbingo.2 percentage pointsRidgewoodbingoThe factory gate price (PPI) of industrial products fell 2.5% from the same period last year, a decline of 0.3% from the previous month.
CPI, PPI year-on-year increases are in line with market expectations. Before the release of the data, the median forecast of the seven institutions collected by the interface news collection showed that in April, the CPI rose 0.3% from a year earlier, and the PPI fell 2.5% from a year earlier.
Analysts pointed out that in April, due to geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices rose as a whole.RidgewoodbingoThe price of refined oil in China has been raised twice at the beginning of the month and in the middle of the month. The rise in oil prices led to an increase in non-food prices in CPI, which also contributed to the narrowing of the year-on-year decline in PPI.
Non-food prices rose 0.9% in April, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Of this total, energy prices rose 3.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; the prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 0.4 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; and service prices rose 0.8 percent, the same as last month. Food prices fell 2.7% from a year earlier, the same rate as last month. Among them, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables rose 1.4% and 1.3% respectively from 2.4% and 1.3% last month, but the price declines of eggs, beef, fresh fruit, mutton and poultry all expanded.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng International Credit Evaluation Co., Ltd., told Interface News that after early production capacity adjustment, pig prices have rebounded slightly recently, coupled with a lower price base in the same period last year, thus driving pork prices from negative to positive compared with the same period last year.
On April 19, Lei Liugong, director of the Market and Informatization Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Village, said at a news conference of the State Council that with the gradual appearance of the effect of pig production, the stock of breeding sows, medium and large pigs, and the number of newborn piglets all showed a downward trend. it is expected that the relationship between supply and demand in the pig market will further improve in the second quarter, and pig farming may turn losses into profits.
Guo Lei, chief economist of Guangfa Securities, pointed out in the research newspaper that the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held at the end of April proposed to "take advantage of the situation to avoid tightening in front and loosening later." One of the room for "taking advantage of the momentum" is to further normalize the nominal growth centre after the real growth rate improves in the first quarter, while the direction of higher prices and nominal growth is to raise demand and reduce supply.
"from the perspective of policies since the second quarter, accelerating the fiscal pace and loosening the real estate market are conducive to demand, while crude steel production control and capacity guidance to the lithium battery industry are conducive to supply, and these measures should be gradually reflected in the subsequent volume and price trend." Guo Lei wrote.
He pointed out that there are already signs of improvement in nominal growth, such as the output price index in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) and the BCI intermediate price index in April.
Pang Ming, chief economist for the Greater China region of Jones Lang LaSalle, also believes that throughout the year, under the background of improving the quality, expansion, efficiency, and coordination of macro policies, and under the condition of continuous recovery and improvement of economic momentum, the inflation center will be gradually repaired in fluctuations and return to the normal level, and the probability of a moderate recovery of CPI will be further increased.
In terms of PPI, analysts pointed out that there are many positive factors in the near future, such as the upward rise in international crude oil prices, driving up the prices of domestic oil-related industries; in the context of the upward cycle of the global electronics industry, copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals have performed well recently; driven by infrastructure investment, domestic steel, cement and other industrial products prices have also rebounded slightly.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the prices of the means of production fell 3.1 percent, or 0.4 percentage points, while the prices of means of subsistence fell 0.9 percent, or 0.1 percentage points. Among the major industries, the prices of the oil and natural gas mining industry rose 9.4%, and the prices of the non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industries rose 3.6%, both of which were larger than last month.
Wang Qing said that in the future, fiscal and monetary policy may be further strengthened, thus further boosting domestic demand and superimposing the base effect, and the year-on-year decline in PPI in May is expected to continue to narrow.
"measures to stabilize growth will continue to be implemented in the future, and support for the real estate industry will be further strengthened, which is expected to provide some support to domestic dominant commodity prices and industrial consumer goods prices. The year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow in May, and negative year-on-year growth is expected to end around the middle of the year." He said.