Zhang Deqiang, rapeseed market analyst of Zhuochuang Information
[introduction] at present Yunnan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hubei and other provincesCrashboombangdsRapeseed in the new season has been on the market. Due to the weather, the quality of rapeseed in the new season in the listed areas has declined compared with the average level of previous years, resulting in less demand for rapeseed in the new season. On the contrary, the demand for aged rapeseed with good quality increased, and the price showed a continuous upward trend. At present, there is still some surplus of aged rapeseed in China, and the trade of most traders in May is still dominated by aged rapeseed, and it is expected that the price of aged rapeseed will continue to rise in May.
Rapeseed in the new season in South China has been put on the market one after another, and the quality is generally poor.
In late April, rapeseed was harvested in Yunnan, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other regions in the new season. The rapeseed harvest in the new season was slow due to continuous rainfall in most parts of the south at that time. After entering May, rapeseed in the new season in Hubei began to be harvested sporadically. According to the quality feedback of rapeseed in the new season, the oil yield is lower than the average level of previous years.
Specifically, the net oil yield of rapeseed in the new season in Yunnan is 29% Mel 30%, which is 3-4% lower than the average of previous years; the oil extraction rate of rapeseed in Sichuan is 30% Mel 32%, which is 2-4% lower than the average of previous years; and the oil extraction rate of rapeseed in Jiangxi is 32% Rue 33%, which is 2-3% lower than the average level of previous years. The small oil extraction rate of rapeseed in the new season in Hubei is 32% Mel 33%, which is 3-4 percentage points lower than the average level of previous years.
Weather factors are the main reason for the general decline in rapeseed quality in the new season in southern China this year. After the Spring Festival holiday, most parts of southern China suffered from low temperature and cold wave weather. Due to the sharp drop in air temperature, rapeseed plants were damaged in the new season, which had a negative impact on the final quality. Although the temperature picked up obviously in March, the continuous rainfall in the south affected the pollination of rapeseed in the new season in some areas. There are more unfavorable weather in the south from February to April, which leads to the poor quality of rapeseed in the new season in the south this year.
The demand for rapeseed increases in the aged season, and the price continues to rise.
The quality of rapeseed in the new season is generally poor, downstream merchants are not enthusiastic about the purchase of rapeseed in the new season, and turn to purchase a large number of aged rapeseed with better quality. The demand for rapeseed in the aged season has increased significantly, supporting the continuous rise in prices. According to Zhuochuang statistics, the average price of rapeseed in the aged season in China was 6079 yuan / ton on May 8, up 1% from April 30.Crashboombangds.74%.
Rapeseed trade in the aged season will be maintained for some time, and prices will continue to rise.
At present, there is still some surplus of aged rapeseed in the southern region, and all the rapeseed in the new season in the southern region has not been put on the market, but from the growth point of view, the quality decline is a high probability event. The quality of rapeseed in the new season is poor, and the market turnover is less. The trade in the southern rapeseed market in May will still be dominated by aged rapeseed, and the price of aged rapeseed is expected to continue to rise in May as the surplus of aged rapeseed continues to decline.