An Guang, an Chuang, an Chuang Information analyst
[introduction] the demand of downstream polyester industry is good from March to May.21bitcasinobonuscodesAnd the overhaul of PTA equipment increased from April to May, which led to the continuous destocking of PTA. However, polyester construction peaked in May, and it is expected that polyester production will continue to decline from June, while the official PTA plant maintenance plan is not much, and it is expected that PTA will start in June or return to tired inventory.
PTA inventory peaked and fell back.
The inventory of PTA society continues to decline from March to May, and the inventory of PTA society is under the general trend of rising and falling. It is estimated that the theoretical destocking of PTA in May is about 130000 tons, and the total destocking of PTA from March to May is estimated to be about 620000 tons.
The main reason for the current round of PTA destocking is good demand and maintenance of PTA equipment. In terms of polyester production from March to May, it is estimated that the monthly average value is 6.29 million tons, of which the polyester output in April is 6.31 million tons, a record high. The rigid demand of polyester for PTA is the main driving force for PTA to get rid of inventory. From the point of view of the overhaul of PTA plant, the overhaul of PTA plant increased gradually, especially from May 5 to May 16, a total of 12.6 million tons of PTA plant was overhauled, and the output of PTA decreased from April to May.
Anticipation21bitcasinobonuscodesTired inventory is expected to be strong
It is expected that demand will fall at its peak and the maintenance plan for PTA units is limited, which will lead to strong expectations of PTA overstocking starting in June. The expected decline in demand is mainly due to the high inventory of polyester products dominated by polyester filaments and the theoretical loss in the overall production of polyester products, and the expected increase in supply is mainly due to the 1.5 million tons of PTA plant overhauled by Guan Xuan's maintenance plan in June.
The main reason for the expected decline in demand is the increasing pressure on the inventory of polyester finished products. For example, the inventory of polyester filament POY is 32 days in mid-May, which is narrowly lower than that in April, but it is still at a high point in the same period of nearly five years. The seasonal peak season is over, the purchasing enthusiasm of the terminal factory is not high, and the joint efforts of large polyester households to reduce the production of polyester filament are not strong. It is estimated that the inventory pressure of polyester filament will remain in June. In addition, the overall production loss of polyester products, according to the April-May data (May data is as of May 17), only the monthly profit of polyester bottle chips in May was 17 yuan / ton, and the rest of polyester products maintained production losses from April to May. Polyester products are expected to maintain production losses in June. On the whole, the inventory pressure and cost pressure of polyester products continue to exist since June, the probability of production reduction in polyester factories is high, and the demand for PTA will decline.
It is estimated that the PTA supply pressure will increase: in the future, the official PTA plant maintenance plan is limited, only 1.5 million tons of PTA plant in East China is planned for maintenance. According to the month of continuous operation of PTA units, it is estimated that up to June, there are 2.2 million tons of PTA units in East China and 3.75 million tons in Northeast China for more than one year. At present, only 3.75 million tons of PTA units in Northeast China may be overhauled, but the specific maintenance date has not been determined. Most PTA units do not have the possibility of annual maintenance in terms of operating time. At present, there are two scenarios for the monthly output of PTA in the next three months: scenario one, the current maintenance plan of Guanxuan is limited, according to the maintenance plan, it is estimated that the monthly output of PTA is between 6 and 6.1 million tons, so there is great pressure on PTA supply. Scenario 2, the average monthly output of PTA from January to May is about 5.85 million tons (less natural days in February, excluding February values). Under the background of sufficient supply of PTA and low processing fees, it is estimated that the average monthly output of PTA from June to August may be slightly higher than the average from January to May, with a high probability of 585-5.95 million tons. It is estimated that the average monthly PTA inventory is about 110000 tons.
Impact: lead to a weaker spot basis and a fall in the market.
Sufficient supply of PTA, tired inventory expectations are strong, the main impact on the PTA market is to lead to the spot basis weakening market decline. This year, the PTA market lacks the influence of oil regulation logic, the supply of PX is sufficient, it is estimated that inventory will be exhausted by PTA from June to August, and the spot basis of PTA is expected to weaken. Unless the summer typhoon weather affects local logistics, the possibility of PTA spot rising water futures is less. In addition, sufficient spot supply will lead to a decline in the PTA market. Historical data show that the negative correlation between PTA social inventory and PTA spot price is the highest, while the excess spot supply of PTA leads to the rise of PTA social inventory, which is indirectly bad for the PTA spot market.
Generally speaking, with the hot weather near the summer, the decline in polyester construction has become a general trend, the demand for PTA is weakening, and PTA is a burden on inventory. The decline in demand will strengthen the impact of excess PTA, bearish PTA spot basis and market. Pay attention to the increase of unplanned overhaul of PTA plant under low processing fee, which may delay the speed of PTA inventory.