Core idea: overall: weak recovery in demand and steady improvement in profitability. (1) according to the sample data of 576 companies in the machinery industry classified by Shenwan, the revenue of the machinery industry in 23 years is about 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year + 2.Cryptocurrencycardgame.7%; realized net profit of 117.8 billion yuan, + 1.1% compared with the same period last year. 1Q24, the overall income of the machinery industry is 428 billion yuan, + 4.2% compared with the same period last year; the net profit returned to the home is 26.9 billion yuan, + 2.65% compared with the same period last year. Quarter by quarter, revenue and profit growth showed a pick-up trend as a whole. (2) the overall profitability remains stable. In 23 years, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the machinery industry was 23.5%, + 1.2pct compared with the same period last year, and the net profit rate was 6%, down 0.1pct from the same period last year. 1Q24 machinery industry gross profit margin is 22.9%, down 0.1 pct from the same period last year; net profit margin is 6.7%, down 0.2pct from the same period last year. (3) Cash flow: the overall cash flow of the machinery industry in 23 years is good, with a net operating cash flow of 143.8 billion yuan, + 8.5% compared with the same period last year. The net operating cash flow of 1Q24 was-2.21 billion yuan, a substantial improvement over the same period last year. From a sub-plate point of view, the demand for general machinery has entered the upward channel, while construction machinery, ship plates and railway equipment are booming. General machinery: demand into the upward channel, the intensity of recovery is expected to gradually increase. In 23 years, the total revenue of the general machinery sector was + 14.16% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was + 17.8% + 1Q24, the revenue was + 9.2%, and the net profit was + 10.5% over the same period last year, showing a steady recovery. As the cost of raw materials continues to fall, General Machinery sector quarterly gross profit margin continues to rise. Since the beginning of this year, the global manufacturing recovery has gradually strengthened. In March, the global manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.6, standing on the rise and fall line for the past three months. AprilCryptocurrencycardgameThe PMI of China's manufacturing industry is 50.4, which is in the range of expansion for two months in a row, and the manufacturing industry continues to recover. Superimposed on the low inventory cycle between China and the United States, the enterprise replenishment cycle is expected to open, or drive the demand for general machinery to meet a rising period. Construction machinery: the signal at the bottom is more and more clear, and the profitability of the mainframe factory is rising steadily. In 2023, the total revenue of the construction machinery sector was + 8.4% compared with the same period last year, the net profit of home ownership was + 19.9% compared with the same period last year, 1Q24 was + 19.9%, the revenue was + 2%, and the net profit of home ownership was + 4%. Thanks to the optimization of product structure and downward costs, the profitability of domestic construction machinery mainframe factories has significantly rebounded. In 2023, the overall gross profit margin of the construction machinery industry was 25.5%, an increase of 0.2% over the same period last year; and the net profit rate was 7.2%, an increase of nearly 1.1pcts over the same period last year. 1Q24, the overall gross profit margin of the construction machinery industry is 25.9%, up 0.9% from the same period last year; the net profit rate is 8.2%, up 0.2pcts from the same period last year. According to the CME forecast, the domestic sales of 23M4 excavators are 9500 units (basically the same as the same period last year). The 36-month downward cycle of the domestic excavator market may be over, and the bottom signal of the plate is clear. Shipbuilding: the ship cycle continues to rise, and it is optimistic that the profits of shipbuilding enterprises will improve. Since 2021, benefiting from ship replacement and short-term geopolitical catalysis, the large cycle of ships has continued to rise, while the global new ship price index has continued to rise due to a sharp contraction in supply-side production compared with the previous cycle. According to the Clarkson Index, the global new shipbuilding price index reached 183.92 in April 2024, + 9.92% year-on-year and + 0.41% month-on-month. Rail transit equipment: the demand for railway equipment has recovered, and the maintenance market for EMU has exploded. According to the State Railway Administration, 23 years of national railway fixed asset investment + 7.5% year-on-year + 9.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 24, the amount of investment accelerated. 1Q24, the national railway passenger volume increased by 28.5%. With the growth of railway investment and the recovery of passenger volume, the demand for railway equipment has warmed up. In addition, China's EMU needs five-level repairs after about 12 years of operation, and the number of emus has increased by 200% in five years from 11 to 16, corresponding to an outbreak of five-level repairs in about 23 years. The fifth-level repair will replace a large area of motor car parts, and it is optimistic that the maintenance market of EMU will increase rapidly. Scientific instruments: continuous breakthroughs in the field of high-end instruments, policies to accelerate the growth of the industry. Instruments are rigid demand tools for scientific research. with the increasing demand for scientific research and production, the demand of the domestic scientific instrument industry continues to grow. in 2023, the total income of the scientific instrument sector is + 14.7% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is + 13.3%, + 13.3%, 1Q24, + 6.7%, + 4%, respectively. The profitability of the plate fluctuates on a quarterly basis, and there is no significant change compared with the same period last year. Investment advice: as the economy gradually stabilizes, follow-up manufacturing demand is expected to pick up, pay attention to the market share and competitive advantage is expected to continue to improve the quality target. It is recommended to pay attention to Hengli hydraulic, CITIC heavy Industry, China Shipbuilding, Sany heavy Industry, Sinovel Precision. The risk indicates the risk of macroeconomic change, the risk of fluctuation of raw material prices, and the risk of policy and production expansion falling short of expectations. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.