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Guo Jie, a reporter from the Securities Times
Recently, there has been a lot of good news in the photovoltaic industry.
On May 23, the National Energy Administration said in a statement that the National Energy Administration recently held a national video conference on the development and construction of renewable energy. The meeting demanded that all efforts should be made to promote the construction of three batches of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases, continue to do a good job in monthly dispatching and weekly monitoring, and promote the completion of the base project as soon as possible and put into production on schedule.
On May 17, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a high-quality development symposium under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information. The meeting proposed to optimize the industry management policy, encourage industry merger and reorganization, smooth the market exit mechanism, and strengthen the fight against vicious competition at low prices, releasing a positive signal that the policy side suppresses the industry's ineffective expansion, and the industry supply side continues to clear.
In addition, this month, the United Arab Emirates delegation of the China Photovoltaic Association returned with a full load. According to the previous statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the new GW markets in 2022 were mainly European countries, but by 2023, the number of GW markets increased from 26 to 32, and the number of countries jointly building "Belt and Road Initiative" increased, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. In recent years, the amount of photovoltaic products exported by China to the Middle East has been rising. Since last year, photovoltaic companies including Xiexin Technology, TCL Central, Trina Solar and CITIC Bo have announced investment plans in the Middle East, with planned production capacity involving polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery modules and auxiliary materials.
In the first quarter of 2024, the national photovoltaic grid increased by 45.74 million kilowatts, an increase of 36 percent over the same period last year, including 21.93 million kilowatts of centralized photovoltaic and 23.8 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic. By the end of March 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China had reached 6. 5%.Asiawintergames.59 billion kilowatts, including 379 million kilowatts of centralized photovoltaic and 280 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic.
As one of the "new three" of foreign trade, the photovoltaic industry is "spoiled" by the capital market, but since 2023, the cost of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain has declined, the industry competition has intensified, and the performance of many head photovoltaic listed companies has been under pressure. the overall market of the plate shows a downward trend.
Since the Wande photovoltaic index peaked at 6175.08 points in August 2022, the index has recovered by more than 50 per cent, according to Securities Times data Bao.
In terms of valuation, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Wande photovoltaic index is 19.56 times earnings, which is 20.78% of the valuation in the past five years. After the first quarter of this year, the valuation of the photovoltaic industry has returned, but it is still at a low level in nearly five years.
From the perspective of individual stocks, with the latest price retreating from the highest point since 2022, the average share price of photovoltaic stocks has retreated by 57.29%, while the pullback of 20 shares, such as Haiyou New Materials, Jinlang Technology, TCL Central and Jingao Technology, has all exceeded 70%.
At present, among the photovoltaic concept stocks, more than half of the concept stocks have a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 30 times, while quartz shares, high-test shares, Jingsheng electromechanical shares and other shares have a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 10 times.
There are 32 stocks that are profitable in the first quarter and showing year-on-year growth. Most of these blue chip stocks have a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 30 times, such as Sunshine Power, Jingsheng Electric and Follett, which have the highest net profit in the first quarter. the latest price-to-earnings ratios are 15.18 times, 9.2 times and 19.86 times, respectively.
Guotai Junan pointed out that the current photovoltaic industry has been in the expected bottom position, followed by the improvement of supply and demand expectations and industrial chain price bottom stabilization, the industry fundamentals are expected to be marginal upward.
Wanlian Securities believes that the entire photovoltaic industry chain has reached the stage of competitive costs, technology, cash flow and other competitiveness, high costs and technologically backward production capacity will accelerate clearance. With the landing of relevant policies and the recovery of market demand, the industry will gradually return to the track of healthy development.
Pacific Securities pointed out that the mid-term bottom of the photovoltaic plate will come soon, and the extremely low prices upstream will continue, which is expected to accelerate the clearing of the supply side. The irrational prices of some products will accelerate the depletion of cash flow of second-and third-tier companies. The marginal change of photovoltaic demand is also worthy of attention. The biggest logic of photovoltaic is that lower prices will lead to more demand, which has been seen from places such as the Middle East, and the new overseas regions are more worthy of attention.