Source: Huawen Futures
Macro-positive policies came out one after another, stimulating market optimism, supporting an all-round rally in black today, with the black chain index hitting its highest level since the rebound in early April and hitting a high of 151 on January 4, 2024.Johnkanevideopoker. 75 . Varieties of raw materials such as coking coal, coke and iron ore led a strong rise, with double coke closing up more than 4%; rebar and hot coil were supported higher, and both closed up more than 1%.
Although the steel mills have implementedJohnkanevideopokerCoke prices fell in the first round, but domestic real estate positive policies boosted market sentiment, timber prices rose strongly, and steel mills were more enthusiastic about resuming production, which led to a rebound in dual coke futures prices. The main contract of coking coal rose nearly 5% in intraday trading, and broke through the 1800 yuan mark at one point, and finally closed up 4.26% to close at 1799.5 yuan, with the daily line recording a Wulianyang trend; the coke main contract rose strongly, closing up 4.62% to close at 2354 yuan, and the Japanese line recorded a six-lianyang trend.
Huawen Futures Research team said that from the news point of view, the policy of steady production determination to strengthen, positive measures intensive release, superimposed ultra-long-term treasury bonds and other financial means, demand is expected to improve. The toughness of steel demand is better than expected, the inventory still maintains the normal degeneration level after the supply is restored, the worry in the off-season has been weakened, and it is also difficult for the furnace charge cost to collapse when the contradiction in the finished-end industry is not apparent.
From the point of view of the supply side, the output of double coke has rebounded from the previous month, but it is still at a low level, while the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has maintained a high level. In addition, the profit situation of coke enterprises improved significantly, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises continued to increase to 72.01%, and the average daily output of coke increased to 663100 tons, a four-month high. The level of comprehensive coke inventory decreased month-on-month, still down more than 9% from the same period last year. (source: Huawen Futures Research Daily)
However, yesterday, Hebei, Shandong and other mainstream steel mills on coke procurement prices proposed a reduction of 100-110 yuan / ton, coke first round drop to the ground. Port coke factory closing price fell 100-110 yuan / ton, trade out-of-stock price has fallen ahead of schedule, only a slight drop of 10 yuan to 1950 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the price of coking coal at the raw material end fell, resulting in the gradual weakening of coke cost support and considerable profits of coke enterprises. many enterprises still hold the view of two rounds of decline in the future. (source: Mandarin Finance)
In the short term, the Huawen Futures Research team pointed out that the increment of coking coal supply was greater than demand, in line with market expectations, and rebounded periodically after the full trading of Shanxi coal mine resumption news, but the spot end coke landed quickly in the first round, with great divergency. short-term dual coke wide shock waiting for spot price guidance.
In terms of iron ore, stimulated by positive macro policies, iron ore futures strengthened again today, with the main contract rising more than 3% in intraday trading, hitting an intraday high of 925.5 yuan, closing up 2.73% to close at 921 yuan, and the daily line recorded a trend of Wulianyang.
Huawen futures research team said that iron ore today has a strong trend and set a new high for this round of rebound. At present, the progress of resuming production of steel mills is accelerated, the output of hot metal continues to pick up, and the demand for iron ore remains exuberant. Coupled with the enhancement of downstream demand improvement expectations, iron ore demand expectations have been further boosted. On the supply side, iron ore shipments remain at a high level, supply growth trend is relatively stable, and inventory is at a high level. On the whole, the current iron ore supply and demand is booming, and the policy is expected to have a strong impact, which forms a strong support and driving effect on iron ore prices.
Attila Weidnell (Atilla Widnell), managing director of Navigate Commodities, said, "there are still a lot of inflated expectations in iron ore prices and China's broader industrial metal complex, supported by optimism and positive sentiment brought about by recent rounds of support programs for the real estate industry. While these measures support house prices and will solve the problems caused by inventory glut, we do not think this will be a panacea for construction activity and related steel demand. " (source: Reuters)
One trader said other metals such as copper and gold climbed to record highs earlier this week, boosting trading sentiment in black. Due to the continuous positive policies on real estate last week, the black department has gained strong upward momentum. However, with profit margins at Chinese steel mills still negative, raw material prices could fall quickly when they start to fight back against suppliers. (source: Reuters)
In terms of steel futures, boosted by real estate policies and positive market sentiment, rebar and hot coil futures both rose. The main rebar contract broke through 3800 yuan, closing up 1.71%, setting a new intraday high of 3814 yuan. The hot coil main contract also hit a new high of 3926 yuan, closing 1.19% higher at 3910 yuan.
The relatively "radical" implementation of the new policy in the property market has led to a rebound in confidence in the steel market, and prices have gradually returned to the upward trend. The price of Shanghai grade seismic thread rose 40 yuan to 3750 yuan per ton, and the price of hot coil in Shanghai rose 30 yuan to 3890 yuan. On May 22, the price of Tangshan billet was raised by 30 yuan twice a day to 3550 yuan, and the scrap market was bullish. The scrap purchase price of Shagang increased by 50 yuan to 2850 yuan, higher than that of the same period last year. (source: Mandarin Finance)
Following the increase in apparent demand for steel last week, today's Ganggu data show that the national apparent demand for construction steel continues to increase by 174800 tons to 4.8764 million tons, while the national apparent demand for hot rolling increases slightly by 24600 tons to 2.3249 million tons. Declining inventories and increased apparent demand also further boosted market sentiment. The downstream finished products and depots are good, the steel mills have a good enthusiasm for resuming production, and the increment of hot metal continues to boost the raw material end, which forms a positive feedback on steel prices. Xinhu Futures Review believes that the current macro positive mood supports the market price, the fundamentals have not changed much, pay attention to when the macro mood cools down. (source: Mandarin Finance)
Follow the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in May
Minutes of the Fed's May policy meeting will be released at 2 a.m. on Thursday, while FOMC officials have delivered a series of speeches on the economic and monetary policy outlook this week, hoping to find more clues about future monetary policy.
On Tuesday, Fed officials, including Fed governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed chairman Raphael Bostic, said it would be prudent for the Fed to wait a few more months to ensure that inflation really returns to its 2 per cent target before starting to cut interest rates.
The Fed has kept the federal benchmark interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July last year and was hit by stronger-than-expected inflation data from January to March. Previously, most Fed officials had supported Chairman Powell, leaning towards hawks, and expressed concerns about the impact of inflation on future decisions.
The market expects that if more Fed officials continue to insist this week that interest rates will be "higher and longer", the US dollar may recover some of its recent losses, and US bond yields may also rise slightly, putting pressure on gold and silver. (Source: Reuters)
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