Transferred from: financial sector
This article is derived fromBestfreepokerTime Weekly
Source: time Weekly author: Zhao Peng
Source: graphic worm creativity
The price of gold jewelry hit a new high.
The price of gold has risen all the way since March. As of May 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures reached a maximum of 582.44 yuan / g, and the listing price of some jewelry brands exceeded 740 yuan / g. Time Weekly reporter visits Chaoyang District, BeijingBestfreepokerGold and jewelry stores in the Hesheng Shopping Mall and the Huiji Shopping Mall in Daxing District found that the prices of gold and silver jewelry had increased.
During the visit, a reporter from time Weekly noticed that during the "520" promotion, most stores will launch preferential activities to boost sales. Although the recent price increase of silver is much higher than that of gold, gold jewelry is still the most concerned variety of consumers, and the popularity of gold bars and silver jewelry used for investment is significantly lower than that of gold jewelry.
A consumer industry analyst at a brokerage in eastern China told time Weekly that because the gold prices and workmanship of different jewelry brands are different, and the needs of consumers are also different, consumers do not just consider price factors in brand choice. In addition, the gross profit margin of gold and silver jewelry is lower than that of inlaid jewelry, and the rise in gold prices will also have an impact on the cost side of businesses.
A number of industry experts interviewed by time Weekly are generally optimistic about the future market trend of precious metals, and some interviewed experts said that the price ratio of gold and silver will also be repaired, and the short-term increase in silver prices may continue to be stronger than gold prices.
The listing price of gold jewelry is 745 yuan / g.
Time Weekly reporter found in the interview, "520" promotion has a certain pulling effect on gold sales, many consumers in front of the counter to consult the situation of gold jewelry. On the same day, most brands of gold jewelry listed gold prices of more than 700 yuan / g. Among them, the highest price of gold jewelry in Chow Tai Fook is 743 yuan / g, the price of gold jewelry in Zhou Shengsheng and Lao Fengxiang is 742 yuan / g, and the prices of vegetable gold and Chinese gold are 706 yuan / g and 679 yuan / g respectively.
On May 21, the gold prices of Chow Tai Fook, Caibai and China Gold remained unchanged at 743 yuan / g, 706 yuan / g and 679 yuan / g, respectively, while Lao Fengxiang's gold price was raised to 744 yuan / g. Zhou Shengsheng's gold price rose to 745 yuan / g, setting a record high for domestic gold jewelry prices.
Hesheng Jewelry area, time Weekly reporter / shoot
However, due to the promotion activities launched by merchants during the "520" period, the price for consumers is less than 740 yuan / g. On the basis of the listed gold price, Lao Fengxiang and Chinese gold give customers a discount of 50 yuan and 30 yuan per gram respectively. Chow Tai Fook will also give customers a discount of 20-30 yuan per gram according to the number of grams of gold purchased by consumers. Zhou Shengsheng gives customers a discount of tens of yuan per gram according to the different activities they participate in.
Hesheng Hui jewelry sales staff told time Weekly that the recent gold sales are very good, usually there will be some activities, but the strength is not as strong as the "520" period, so the consultation volume in these two days is higher than in the past. Although the sales promotion during the "520" period is not inferior to the May Day holiday, the sales volume is obviously not as good as the May Day holiday.
A consumer of gold jewelry consulted at the counter told time Weekly, "I bought gold to send my friends to take advantage of the '520' activity to take a look at the market situation." Gold is a hard currency and its value is easier to measure than other commodities. In addition, gold has many good meanings in traditional culture, and sending gold jewelry can express good wishes to friends. "
Gold is sought after mainly because of its high preservation of value and investment value. As a rare precious metal, gold has been widely used in jewelry production and investment collection since ancient times. Its price is relatively stable, and in times of economic instability, gold is usually seen as a safe haven asset that protects investors' wealth from factors such as inflation. A person in the jewelry industry told time Weekly.
Compared with the popularity of gold jewelry, there are relatively few consumers who invest in gold and gold bars at the counter. There are gold jewelry sales staff said that investment in gold is non-rigid demand, their own investment in the majority, gold prices become higher, the number of people consulting to invest in gold has decreased. And most of those who buy gold jewelry are rigid demand, although this part of customers will have a certain degree of hesitation, but the possibility of a deal is very great. "
Hesheng Jewelry area, time Weekly reporter / shoot
Silver price is better than gold price.
Time Weekly reporter compared the current round of gold and silver prices and found that the increase in silver prices is far greater than that of gold. This is very obvious in gold and silver jewelry. For example, the basic silver price of vegetable hundred rose from 6.6 yuan / g on May 6 to 7.5 yuan / gram on May 20, an increase of 13.64%. Over the same period, the price of vegetable gold rose from 686 yuan / gram to 706 yuan / gram, an increase of only 2.91%. The price increase of gold and silver jewelry of other brands is similar to that of Caibai.
In view of the phenomenon that silver is stronger than gold, Fan Rui, a non-ferrous analyst at Guoyuan Futures, told time Weekly that "many macroeconomic data in the United States exceeded expectations, which once again triggered the revision of market interest rate cut expectations." Due to the strong linkage between precious metal prices and the US dollar and US policy interest rates, there is a significant price boost. Silver because of its own price elasticity relative to gold on the large side, coupled with the existence of a certain gold and silver repair demand, so in the recent rise is significantly stronger than gold. "
Although the price performance is stronger than gold, the market price of silver is not as good as gold. A jewelry salesperson from Hesheng Huihui told time Weekly, "Gold is obviously more attractive than silver. Among the customers who go to the counter to consult, there are obviously more customers consulting about gold jewelry, and occasionally a few customers consult about silver jewelry."
"regardless of the price of gold and silver, gold is usually hotter than silver." The jewelry industry told time that although silver is also a precious metal, its price is volatile and its demand in industrial applications is more extensive, which makes its price more vulnerable to changes in market supply and demand. Although silver is also decorative and symbolic in some cultures, it lags far behind gold in terms of investment and preservation of value.
The above-mentioned people in the jewelry industry added that the design and craftsmanship of gold jewelry are often more exquisite and can meet consumers' pursuit of beauty and quality. The color and luster of gold also make it the first choice for many important occasions and holiday gifts. Therefore, whether as an investment product or an ornament, gold is obviously more attractive than silver in the market.
What is the future trend of gold and silver prices?
Regarding the reasons for the rise in the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver, Fan Rui analyzed and pointed out that many macroeconomic data in the United States exceeded expectations and the uncertainty brought by geopolitical factors have benefited precious metals prices to a certain extent. The credit problem of the US dollar is constantly being questioned by the market. Central banks around the world have diversified needs for foreign exchange reserve assets, because gold itself has monetary attributes and has multiple characteristics such as anti-inflation and risk aversion. Since 2022, central banks around the world have been purchasing large quantities of gold to balance risks, which is one of the important factors in this round of long-term rise in precious metals prices.
Looking to the future, Fan Rui is optimistic about precious metal prices. She believes that "global loose monetary policy is expected to be fully implemented within the year, expectations of a weakening of the US dollar are still there, and the monetary policy cycle dimension is good for precious metal prices. Central banks around the world have continued to purchase gold for more than two years. Against the international background of long-term geopolitical issues, degradation of the global trading environment, and anti-globalization, central banks still have strong diversified needs for reserve assets. There is a greater need for increasing holdings of gold. Operating space and duration, thus providing solid support for precious metal prices from the demand side."
Liu Shiyao, a precious metals researcher at Zijin Tianfeng Futures, admitted to the Times Weekly reporter that this round of increase can be attributed to the rise in inflation expectations. As the war in the Middle East pushed crude oil to surge, it triggered concerns about re-inflation in the United States. While the fundamentals of the U.S. economy have not yet declined, the U.S. fiscal deficit has continued to deteriorate. The inflationary turbulence this year is likely to be "artificially" created by the U.S. fiscal debt issuance and the Federal Reserve's turn to doves. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S. external financial sanctions questioned the safety and liquidity of U.S. dollar assets. Market concerns about the U.S. dollar as a sovereign credit currency further drove the rise of gold.
Liu Shiyao further pointed out that the inflationary logic of gold will continue to dominate the birth of new markets, and we will position the next target for Shanghai gold futures at 615 yuan/gram. The fundamentals of silver are similar to those of gold. Once high inflation expectations in the United States and the logic of de-dollarization are created, it will promote the bull market in precious metals. In a bull market environment, there is usually a decline in the gold/silver ratio, and we expect silver to rise more than gold this year.
Sha Chuan, fund manager of Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF, told Times Weekly that historical data showed that gold performed strongly before the interest rate cut. Therefore, it can be expected that gold may perform better before the upcoming first interest rate cut. Once the interest rate cut policy is implemented, gold prices may enter a short adjustment stage. As inflation rises and nominal interest rates fall, lower real interest rates may push gold prices higher further.