Zhuochuang information soybean meal market analyst Zhen Yanan
[introduction] into AprilThorslots43% of the spot basis of protein soybean meal in China has been priced to M2409 contract, and the spot basis in most regions has changed from positive to negative, and South China is also among them, accompanied by time.ThorslotsThe basis of the passage of time continues to decline. The weather vane province in South China is Guangdong. According to the oil plant start-up plan and the soybean arrival plan, the follow-up supply is still relatively loose, while the demand side is not strong, and the spot basis is expected to continue to decline. Guangdong supply is still possible to radiate outward.
The spot basis difference in Guangdong is under pressure and remains low for a long time.
In 2024, the spot basis of domestic soybean meal has been falling, mainly due to relatively loose supply and lower-than-expected demand. Compared with the base prices of major regions in China, South China, represented by Dongguan, is in the top three low levels of price spreads most of the time. Since April, 43% of the spot protein soybean meal in Guangdong has entered a negative contract basis against M2409 and has been maintained so far. by May 22nd, the spot basis in Dongguan is against M2409120 yuan / ton, which is lower than the level of the same period in 2021-2023. Relatively sufficient spot supply and weak demand are the main reasons for the poor performance. In addition, the heavy rainfall in May slowed down the recovery process of downstream aquaculture and delayed the peak season of aquaculture feed demand.
The fluctuation frequency and amplitude of price difference between Guangdong and Guangxi increase.
The low price of soybean meal in Guangdong is beneficial to the transportation to other provinces. In late April, the spot price in Guangdong was about 90 yuan / ton lower than that in Guangxi and lasted for about a week, and some of the goods from Guangdong went to Guangxi. From the point of view of the radiation area, the goods from Guangdong can be transferred to Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Fujian and other places, among which Guangxi, which also belongs to South China, is the main transportation object.
Compared with the spot price trend of 43% protein soybean meal in Guangdong and Guangxi, the price difference between them is relatively stable before 2022, and remains in the range of-50 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. After 2022, with the continuous increase in production capacity of Guangdong oil plant, the fluctuation frequency and range of price difference have increased, which has also laid the foundation for regional transportation.
Relying on dock shipping, Guangdong has the advantage of outward transportation of goods.
Because raw material soybeans mainly rely on imports, most of the crushing enterprises are concentrated in the coast, so shipping has more advantages in logistics and transportation. According to the situation of logistics, transportation and freight, the freight from Dongguan, Guangdong to Nanning, Guangxi, and Guigang is 40-50 yuan / ton, that is to say, if the price difference between the two places exceeds 50 yuan / ton, it can constitute the condition of transportation. In addition, some of the goods in Guangxi are sent to Yunnan and Guizhou, where there are fewer soybean crushing enterprises. If the price difference between Guangdong and Guangxi is more than 100 yuan / ton, the Guangdong source can radiate to the sales area of Guangxi.
In addition, the supporting terminal of Cofco Guangdong Industrial Park in Ma Chung, Guangdong Province officially opened on May 6, realizing normal operation. Cofco Guangdong Industrial Park has become the most comprehensive grain and oil industrial park in South China, with an estimated annual loading and unloading of imported grain and shipping of various products of 3.5 million tons, including rice, flour, oil and soybean meal. The official operation of the terminal will facilitate the soybean meal resources of COFCO in Dongguan to be shipped to Guangxi, Fujian, Hainan and other places.
After the increase in production capacity, Guangdong soybean meal has a demand for outward transportation.
From the analysis of production capacity, Guangdong is also the first place in South China. By 2024, the daily soybean crushing capacity of Guangdong will reach about 70,000 tons, while that of Guangxi will reach 4. 5%.Thorslots. 650000 tons per day, Fujian is about 20, 000 tons. Compared with the storage capacity, the soybean storage capacity of Guangdong crushing enterprises is about 1.45 million tons, and the soybean meal storage capacity is 24.ThorslotsThe soybean storage capacity in Guangxi is slightly smaller at 910000 tons, while the soybean meal storage capacity is about 233000 tons. Guangdong's strong soybean storage capacity can support its relatively flexible scheduling plan, but the low soybean meal storage capacity will cause it to face obvious warehouse expansion pressure when the soybean meal demand is weak, and then it is more likely to promote sales at a low price.
Combined with the above, Guangdong will continue to be the main outgoing province of soybean meal in South China, and the price will also be the weather vane in the region. From the perspective of spot fundamentals of soybean meal, from mid-to late May to June, the pressure on the supply side of the market is still obvious. The latest estimate of soybean arrival in May is 9 million tons, which is expected to be loose. As a result, the downstream demand side is more wait-and-see, maintaining rigid demand and rolling replenishment. Short-term soybean meal spot fundamentals are difficult to improve, Zhuang Chuang Information expects the spot basis may still be downward.