Zhuochuang Information Analysts Zhang Yanfei and Li Haining
[Lead] Profits in asphalt production remained poor in AprilstarpokerUnder the circumstances of, the asphalt output of local refineries declined, while the output of main refineries continued to increase. Asphalt production profits improved in May, and local refinery output was expected to increase, but market demand was weakstarpokerUnder the circumstances of, production growth is expected to be limited.
Production in April decreased by 3% month-on-month
China's asphalt production in April was 226starpoker.34 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.6 million tonsstarpoker.99 million tons or 3.00%. In April, international oil prices showed a high and volatile trend, and the diluted asphalt premium also remained at a phased high of-10 US dollars/barrel. The asphalt cost support continued to be strong, and production profits remained low during the year. Taking comprehensive local refineries as an example, April The average monthly asphalt production profit was-1,048.90 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 62.54 yuan/ton or 6.34%. Local refineries were still not enthusiastic about asphalt scheduling. Although Sinopec's asphalt production continued to increase, the overall asphalt production decreased in April due to some refineries that had started operation at the beginning of the year choosing to suspend operations or reduce asphalt production loads.
In April, main output increased and local refining output decreased
In terms of sub-group affiliation, the asphalt output of local refineries in April was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons month-on-month. Factors such as profits and shipments led to poor enthusiasm for local refineries for production. Xinhai reduced the asphalt production load, and Beihai Heyuan, Ningbo Keyuan's phased shutdown led to a decline in local refinery output in April; The planned production volume of the main refineries is strong, and output is less affected by profits. In April, the output of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 65,000 tons and 40,000 tons respectively month-on-month, including refineries such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Jinan Refining and Chemical and Yunnan Petrochemical. The increase in output is relatively obvious.
Asphalt production profit improved significantly in May
Entering May, international oil prices showed a certain correction. In addition, the premium price of diluted asphalt sold in May fell by US$4/barrel. The pressure on the asphalt cost side was relieved, and the asphalt production profit of local refineries improved significantly compared with April. Boosted by the improvement in profits, there is a high probability that local refineries that have started operation in the early stage will maintain asphalt production. Some refineries that have not started operation in the early stage will also move to resume production. It is expected that the asphalt output of local refineries may increase slightly in May.
However, affected by poor project planning and project funds, fewer road projects have been started this year, and the rigid demand for asphalt has performed poorly. Asphalt shipments by mainstream traders have dropped by 30%-50% year-on-year. The consumption of asphalt resources has been slow, and the inventory pressure of social libraries has continued to be large. In May, the asphalt production schedule of the main refinery fell by about 100,000 to 120,000 tons month-on-month. Therefore, there may be limited room for output growth in May, with an expected output of 2.25 - 2.3 million tons.